Missing on a No. 1 National Football League draft pick is a lot like missing a 2-foot putt in a major golf championship: The ramifications will be costly and felt for several years.

Just consider the No. 1 overall picks in the NFL draft the past 10 years. Of those, one is already out of the league (Tim Couch), another might never return (Michael Vick) and two are with different teams (Courtney Brown, David Carr). That doesn't even include quarterback Alex Smith of the San Francisco 49ers, who is still trying to determine the path on which he will embark.

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The PG spends the week getting fans ready for the NFL draft Saturday and Sunday.

Sunday: What do the the Steelers need?

Monday: Best things in life are free (agents)

Tuesday: Steelers have no seventh-round pick. No problem, you say? Think again.

Wednesday: Nineteen years ago, the Steelers selected Tim Worley in the first round

Thursday: First-round busts have become part of NFL draft lore. ... Not one for the Steelers.

Friday: Pitt's Jeff Otah could go early. ... And a look at other local players.

Saturday: Ed Bouchette's best guess at Steelers' picks and his annual mock draft of the first round.

• The Steelers Report:
Special NFL Draft edition!

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That's half of the past 10 overall No. 1s who either have been washouts or are still waiting to have some significant impact with their respective teams. And those are the top players selected.

"When you are picking from so many guys at that stage, you should hit on those guys," said Kevin Colbert, the Steelers' director of football operations. "The higher the pick, then, really, the higher the evaluation. So they should be good players."

In other words, don't miss the gimme.

Of all the information to extract and variables to consider in the player lottery known as the NFL draft, one commodity has proved to be consistent: Get it right with the No. 1 pick -- especially if you're picking in the upper half of the first round.

The Steelers have the 23rd pick when the draft begins at 3 p.m. Saturday, and recent history has shown that they do get it right with their No. 1 pick. Since the decade began, the Steelers have drafted an eventual starter every year on the first round, including Plaxico Burress (2000), who left in free agency after the 2004 season.

The lone exception is linebacker Lawrence Timmons, last year's No. 1 pick, but it is still too early to properly evaluate his contribution. Even Troy Polamalu (2003), a four-time Pro Bowl selection, wasn't a starter as a rookie in the team's complicated defensive scheme.

"You hope to avoid mistakes, and that's not to say that we won't make them," Colbert said. "We have had some good No. 1 picks. Again, they are supposed to be good."

Well, not always.

In back-to-back years, the Cleveland Browns selected Couch (1999) and Brown (2000) with the top overall pick in the draft, and each flamed out within several years -- one of the reasons it has taken the Browns so long to climb back to respectability once they re-entered the league.

Conversely, the Steelers have effectively constructed the core of their current team with No. 1 picks, beginning with nose tackle Casey Hampton (2001), Polamalu and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (2005) and including these young stars in the making: Tight end Heath Miller (2005) and wide receiver Santonio Holmes (2006). Until he joined the New York Jets in free agency two months ago, the list also included guard Alan Faneca (1998).

Of the 16 No. 1 picks whom the Steelers have selected since Bill Cowher's first season as coach in 1992, only one -- tackle Jamain Stephens -- was never a full-time starter. Stephens might be considered the team's biggest draft bust since Huey Richardson in 1991 because he lasted just three seasons before he was cut.

However, it can be argued that wide receiver Troy Edwards, their top pick in 1999, was a bigger disappointment, even though he set a team record for receptions by a rookie (61). Edwards, who was traded before the 2002 season, was taken with the 13th overall pick -- an area of the draft where teams have a chance to draft a player who can and perhaps should significantly impact a team. Stephens, conversely, was the 29th player drafted in 1996.

Colbert said there are usually 20 players in each draft who teams know will be selected in the first round. The only problem is figuring which players will go to which teams.

The Steelers, though, have the 23rd pick, and even Colbert admitted that trading up is not much of an option because the team has only six draft choices.

"With the sharing of information, the combines, pro days and things like that, I think anybody can get the first 20 guys right," Colbert said. "You might not know where they are going to go, but it is usually going to be 20 guys are going to go to 20 teams and nobody is going to be surprised. And there are probably going to be two or three who maybe we didn't have evaluated as highly who are going to slip in there as well.

"So I think that group is that group, and that second tier, I think there are a lot of kids that can go in the second or third round that can definitely help us. Some of those kids might get picked in the first round. You have to be flexible and ready to move."

Of the 29 different players they have had selected to the Pro Bowl since 1993, the Steelers acquired six on the first round -- Faneca, Hampton, Polamalu, Roethlisberger, tight end Eric Green and cornerback Rod Woodson.

However, seven of the Pro Bowl picks were drafted in the second round and five came in the third round. Only three came from later rounds -- Barry Foster (fifth round), Greg Lloyd (sixth) and Aaron Smith (fifth).

Curiously, the largest number of Pro Bowl players have been signed in free agency (eight), including Willie Parker and James Harrison, who were undrafted rookie free agents.

"One, two, three, you can't miss some of those kids," Colbert said, referring to the draft rounds. "If those kids aren't pushing for starting positions at some point while they are here, then they weren't evaluated correctly."