Slowing sales and a worsening national economy are a storm cloud threatening the blue skies that homeowners in the South Hills have been enjoying.

Yes, the housing slump in other parts of the nation may be slowly edging its way here.

The most recent home sales figures available are for September, reported by RealSTATs, a real estate information company. They show home sales in the metro Pittsburgh area falling 16.4 percent so far this year, compared with the first nine months of last year.

In the state, statistics show median home sale prices declined 1.5 percent from last year, and over all sales have dipped sharply.

In Washington County, mortgage assistance applications are up.

In addition, foreclosures are up in the Pittsburgh region, but not as drastically as in other parts of the nation.

This summer the news was relatively good for home sales here, with many real estate experts describing the market in July as stable.

Since then, the nation's economy has sharply declined, with fewer jobs and fewer houses moving on the market -- but lots more foreclosures. So, we checked back with some of the experts to see what is going on in the real estate market in the South Hills.

At least one, Realtor Howard Hanna, maintains the market here is still stable.

But an economist at the University of Pittsburgh, Dr. Chris Bream, wonders if the economic "tsunami has hit us yet.''

The area's economy is driven by sectors that may serve as a buffer from a national recession, said Dr. Briem, a regional economist at the University Center for Social and Urban Research.

The Pittsburgh area has not experienced a recession to the extent seen across the nation, Mr. Briem said. This is likely linked to the area's healthcare and education industries, he said, which tend to fare well in a down economy.

While the number of foreclosures in the Pittsburgh area is up in the past year, said John Pastor, the lieutenant governor of the Pennsylvania Association of Mortgage Brokers, they are "not nearly in pace with national averages."

Accurate numbers of foreclosures were not readily available.

The number of applications for mortgage assistance in Allegheny County is down 5 percent this year from last, said Daryl Rotz, the director of the Homeowner's Emergency Mortgage Assistance Program, a division of the Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency.

Generally the eastern half of the state had an increase in applications, he said, while the western half did not.

An exception to this, he said, is Washington County, which had an increase of 5.6 percent in applications for assistance this year over last, he said.

Also, Pennsylvania real estate prices did not accelerate over the past several years as they did in states, such as California and Florida. Hence, prices are not declining here as they are in these areas, said Samantha Krepps, a spokeswoman with the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors.

Still, year-to-date median home sale prices in the state have declined 1.5 percent from September of last year, according to statistics from the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors. More recent statistics through October are due out this month, Ms. Krepps said.

But according to statistics from RealSTATs, the local market has experienced continued price increases. The average price of a home in the five-county area that includes Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Washington and Westmoreland counties stands at $152,823, an increase of 36.3 percent since 2000.

The Pittsburgh area also "did not get caught up in a new construction housing boom" as did states such as Nevada and Arizona, said Robert Denk, an economist with the National Association of Home Builders.

Between 2003 and 2005, Mr. Denk said, some areas of the country got "ahead of fundamentals," and new construction exceeded demand. Those areas, he said, experienced an "ugly correction" starting in 2006.

"The Pittsburgh area did extremely well in terms of restrictions in price and production," Mr. Denk said.

The market for existing homes in the South Hills is stable, said Howard Hanna, president and chief executive officer of Howard Hanna Real Estate Services.

"The markets in the Route 19 and Route 51 corridor are pretty consistent," he said.

There have been no dramatic changes in the South Hills markets in the past six months, he said, and "it remains a very desirable place to live." Bethel Park and Baldwin are particularly good markets, he said.

Demand for houses in Mt. Lebanon, Upper St. Clair and Peters is "always high" because of their reputation for quality public schools, said Virginia Montgomery, the manager for the Coldwell Banker office in Mt. Lebanon.

But, despite the Realtors' optimism, fewer homes are being sold this year than last.

According to statistics from the Pennsylvania Association of Realtors, year-to-date sales in the state are down 22.1 percent from last year, meaning that fewer homes have changed hands this year than in last.

The number of sales is also down in Allegheny and Washington counties.

The number of properties that closed in the first 10 months of 2008 is down almost 13 percent from last year in Allegheny County, according to statistics from the Realtors Association of Metropolitan Pittsburgh.

Likewise, the number of properties that closed in the first 10 months of this year is down 18 percent from last year in Washington County.

"Typically we see an increase in the number of sales," said Tony Mete, the president of the Association. "The market has softened."

The number of new listings is also down, Mr. Mete said, with about 400 fewer houses listed in Allegheny County this year than for the same period last year. About 100 fewer houses were listed in Washington County, he said.

"This decline is considerable," he said.

The recent shrinking of national credit markets is a threat that no city can escape. Some wonder whether the national economic downturn occurring now will have ripple effects that will be felt in the local real estate market in 2009.

"If you can't get credit, everyone will feel that," Mr. Briem said. "For Pittsburgh, it's a question of whether the tsunami has hit us yet."

"Pennsylvania is not immune from national trends," Ms. Krepps said. "This is the beginning of a new period in the housing market." The real estate market has gone to a "back-to-basics" market where buyers are looking for a home to live in, not to buy and sell as an investment, she said.

The busy season for real estate is the spring, so financial losses in investors' portfolios from this year might not be felt in the real estate market until early in 2009, Ms. Montgomery said.

The area is not immune to a continuing, deeper recession, Mr. Hanna said. He does not expect credit to be a problem in the real estate market, he said, but credit in general "needs to loosen up so we don't go into a deeper recession."

"This is an unusual time," said Mr. Hanna, who has been in real estate for about 43 years. The country has not seen the confluence of so many people in houses that they cannot hold on to combined with national economic turmoil, he said.

In this historically inimitable market, buyers and sellers often have uncertainty about the best strategy to buy or sell a house.

Sellers should price their house correctly, Ms. Montgomery said, and should maintain their property. Fresh paint, a neat yard and a clean house are more important than ever, she said.

Now is a good time to buy, Mr. Mete said. "There is no shortage of financing available," he said. "You just have to qualify."

Buy what you can afford, Mr. Hanna advised, and secure financing with a traditional fixed-rate mortgage, he said.

"The old theory was that you bought a house for the lifestyle and for a place for your family to live. It is better to buy than to rent, and you pay off the mortgage as a sort of forced savings account,'' Mr. Hanna said.

"That's the way housing should be," Mr. Hanna said. "There's no question people will be going back to that way of thinking."