President Barack Obama's two-day visit to Florida beginning Monday marks his first personal outreach to Democrats there heading into 2010 and indicates how determined his White House is to compete for the state in 2012.
This trip, more than any the president has taken since January, looks like a campaign swing. The itinerary and the events are crafted to accentuate positives -- health care and the economy are not on the agenda -- and to squeeze the most into his time there.
"He's doing very much what George W. Bush did when he got elected, visiting Florida and Pennsylvania, states he wanted to flip or keep in his column," said David Johnson, a Republican political consultant. "They're shoring up for 2012."
Obama will hit three of the swing state's largest media markets. He begins in Jacksonville, stays overnight in Miami and flies to a rural area in a moderate Republican congressional district near Tampa Tuesday morning before returning to Washington. Along the way the president will energize new Democrats and the traditional faithful and engage the state's independent and moderate Republican voters who were pivotal to his election.
That the president is staying overnight in itself is significant. Obama has only bunked overnight in the same state where he'll hold an event the following day twice since taking office: in Arizona and California. Unlike Florida, both states geographically make for a tricky day trip. By stretching out his Florida visit over two days, Obama sends a strong signal about the state's significance, and gets more media coverage.
Perhaps the strongest sign that Obama is in campaign mode is that his scheduled events sidestep controversial issues.
While he's in a state with an abundance of seniors, who are nervous about the impact Obama's health care reform plan will have on Medicare, the president will not host an event focusing on his current top legislative priority. And despite Florida's double-digit unemployment rate, Obama's events will not focus specifically on the economy (although he'll likely mention jobs during an energy event).
Instead the president will raise money for the Democratic National Committee, address members of the military and headline an energy event highlighting climate change legislation that Congress is struggling to pass this year at the opening of the largest solar power facility in the country.
"It's obviously very important for us," Kirk Wagar, Obama's top Florida fundraiser during the 2008 campaign, said of the president's visit. "It absolutely shows that we take nothing for granted."
Florida loomed large in Obama's election victory in 2008, because it had been one of hardest states for Democrats to flip going back to Al Gore's epic defeat there in 2000. His approval in the state -- up slightly, to 48 percent, according to a Quinnipiac poll -- is far from 70s rating Obama enjoyed when he was in the state in February, but it comes as Florida's unemployment rate hovers around 11 percent.
Like his last trip, when he stumped for his $787 billion economic stimulus plan on GOP terrain in the southwest part of the state, Obama's schedule shows he doesn't only intend to keep Florida in his favor four years from now by rallying the base and newly registered Democrats, particularly young and minority voters. He's showing that he'll compete again in the red parts of the state where he did well in 2008.
Arcadia, where the president will hold the energy event, is overwhelmingly Republican, and has a growing Hispanic population. Jacksonville is a GOP stronghold, and has a large bloc of black voters who had strong turnout for Obama in last year's election.
Obama's visit doesn't only signal that the White House sees the state as critical to his re-election. It's also a reminder of how important Florida is overall to the Democratic Party.
Every statewide office is open in the 2010 election -- all four cabinet seats, including governor -- along with a U.S. Senate seat. The gubernatorial election in particular has long-term implications, given the upcoming congressional redistricting.
Republicans also have the opportunity to pick up some House seats in Florida in 2010. Already Vice President Joe Biden, who will be in Miami and West Palm Beach later this week for DNC fundraisers, has flown in to boost a couple of freshman Democrats in Central Florida.
"Up to this point the president hasn't weighed in," said University of South Florida political science professor Susan MacManus. "For the Democrats it's important that he come to the state and reconnect with some of the voters, with some of the supporters who are going to be critical to their election next year."
The state's Republicans will use Obama's visit to stress the continued loss of jobs despite his expensive stimulus package, Johnson said. But, he added, the president's stop will be important for Florida Democrats in keeping up momentum from gains they've made in elections and voter registration.
"It shows that the president's focused, he's concerned about Florida," Johnson said. "It helps keep the enthusiasm of the Democratic Party going."
Adding to the campaign feel of Obama's trip, Florida presents the president with some political dramas.
The last time Obama was in the state, Republican Gov. Charlie Crist canceled a lunch with former governors, including GOP favorite Jeb Bush, and literally embraced the president on a stage in Fort Myers as he touted a $787 billion stimulus plan.
Now Crist is running radio ads criticizing Obama for trying to "spend our way into prosperity" as he faces an increasingly tough Republican primary for the Senate.
Crist further tried to distance himself from Obama last week when the trip was announced, telling a Florida reporter, "I don't even know what day he's coming." And the self-styled "green governor" will be nowhere in sight Tuesday when Obama headlines the opening of the solar plant in Arcadia that Crist helped push through the state legislature.
Obama will also be face-to-face with Rep. Kendrick Meek, the Democrat who is running for Senate, on his home turf. Although he's recently won some significant endorsements, including potential primary opponent Rep. Corrine Brown, some Democrats have expressed low confidence in Meek, who will be at the Miami fundraiser Monday evening.
Said Wagar: "There's a lot of bases to touch when you come to Florida."
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